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Paul Tiffany's picture

Exponential change

I hesitantly agree with the video's thesis, that "we are living in exponential times."  This view, recently popularized in futurist Ray Kurzweil's best selling book The Singularity Is Near, applies the old idea of economic growth with the to the wild progress and wide impact of information science to fortell a fantastical future not so far as science fiction.  Kurzweil's technological singularity is a point in the future where our evolution oustrips our understanding.  Unlike Kurzweil, I believe there is no critical point for this phenomenon, and instead that we have always been living in exponential times.  As the asymmetric power technologies provide continues to create opportunities for the Haves to monopolize access to information and further consolidate power, many will be unable to keep apace.  The first political movement in the United States, the Sabbatarian movement, was as much about economics as religion: Blue law gave Eastern interests a 24 hour head start on the week's beginning's business buzz.  Today, inadequate access to the Internet is a serious civil rights issue.  I wholeheartedly agree that we have a responsibility to stay educated or lose our relevance.  Beyond our own awareness, I believe we have a responsibility to provide such opportunity for others, and is the only way to prevent trending centralization in power. 
 
Regarding Hawking's take on complexity, I disagree that "the great majority of this information is garbage, and no use to any form of life."  While this may be true in a genetic perpective, a vibrant though noisy memetic ecosphere is this man's treasure.  Even while restricting ourselves to a genetic litmus, John Hawks argues the rate of human genetic evolution is already rapidly increasing.  Hawking defintes humanity as an aggregate of both internal genetic and external linguistic material.  I take an even more general view than Hawking, leaving such semantic arguments about identity to less dispassionate lexicographers.  No matter how we define our shared and divergent conceptions of humanity, for now change appears to increase across many parameters.
 
I must note an interesting development, a surprising post from one of my favorite bloggers, Michael Anissimov.  His recent post, The Future is Not Accelerating, in an enigmatic stance for a blog entitled "Accelerating Future." I agree with his questioning the reliability of the Law of Accelerating Returns, and believe that while we are generally in a phase of increasing complexity, we may live in a phenomenally spherical universe. 
 
For now, it is best to apply our otolith organs specifically, and err from potentially erroneous abstraction.

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